“The Rain Dance” — Magical Thinking and Superstitions

When coincidental reinforcement becomes a problem


If you have read my previous articles, you’re probably familiar with my pop-culture references. I won’t apologize for them, they are more than just “filler.” My years as a teacher and therapist have taught me that, while people rarely remember the technical details of their behavior, they deeply remember the emotions evoked by a story. Whether I’m referencing Clark Kent (Superman), Ted Mosby or the characters of Inside Out,the goal is the same — to connect, simplify and learn.

So, here comes another one: Have you ever tried to make it rain for the sake of love?

Likely not, but in Season 1 of How I Met Your Mother, Ted Mosby does exactly that. Driven by his unquenchable thirst to conquer Robin, he spends hours performing a traditional rain dance to prevent her from going on a weekend trip with a potential fling. Ted is so desperate that he turns to a ritual that has zero logical connection to the weather. And then, the impossible happens: It rains.

The “Lucky” Coincidence

Now, we can all agree that Ted didn’t actually make it rain. It was a mere coincidence–and a bit of Hollywood TV magic. However, two completely independent events appear to assume an almost “magical” property through coincidental reinforcement. 

You see, the principles of learning dictate that, through operant conditioning, behaviors that are reinforced are more likely to be repeated and behaviors that are punished are less likely to be repeated. Although merely coincidental, Ted Mosby’s raindance is reinforced when it starts to rain. This may sound outrageous, but it is no different from the lucky pen you used in your exams in college, the special pair of pants you wear to a presentation with your boss or how some football players never step on the sideline before they step on to the pitch. Magical thinking and superstitions are not a novelty of human behavior, it has existed since our earliest civilizations. They are not the result of astronomical phenomenon, but instead, a result of coincidental, and powerful reinforcement. 

El pensamiento mágico y las supersticiones no son una novedad en el comportamiento humano; han existido desde las primeras civilizaciones. No son el resultado de fenómenos astronómicos, sino de un reforzamiento coincidente y poderoso.

The Illusion of Control

But, why does Ted do the raindance to begin with?

Well, humans have a fundamental intolerance for uncertainty and during situations like an exam, a first date or a championship game–we feel powerless. The rituals that we perform, whether it be engaging in a raindance, or using your “lucky” pen on an exam, provide a sense of control, which in turn reduces the anxiety induced by these situations. Just like Ted, it makes us feel like we have tilted the scales in our favor and the uncertainty is reduced. Superstitions are not about logic, they are about emotional regulation.

The Cost of Magic

If these rituals facilitate emotional regulation, then “what’s the harm in a little dance?” While these behaviors may seem harmless, they carry a hidden price tag. Primarily, attributing success to a “lucky pen” erodes an individual’s sense of self-efficacy, rather than attributing the success to the preparation and hard-work that actually earned the grade, the “win” is attributed to a piece of plastic.

Also, what happens when you lose that lucky pen? The result is often a spike in performance anxiety that wouldn’t have existed otherwise. When we become dependent on rituals, we may enter a compulsion loop. When the ritual eventually fails–as it inevitably will, since it possesses no real power–we rarely blame the superstition itself. Instead, we blame our execution of it (ie. “I only failed because I didn’t have my pen”). By focusing on the ritual, we fail to address the actual causal factors of our success, such as preparation, rest and study habits, ultimately leading to more rigid behavior and higher levels of anxiety–achieviing the exact opposite of the emotional regulation we were seeking in the first place.

It May Not Be Worth It

In the end, Ted Mosby got his rain, but it didn’t solve the underlying uncertainty of his relationship with Robin (at least for another 8 seasons– and yes, we’ve passed the statute of limitations on spoilers). spoilers While the dance provided a temporary sense of control and a false urge of courage regarding his “destiny,” it had no actual influence on the outcome. Instead, it placed him at risk of falling into the dangerous compulsion loop of magical thinking. 

It is true that certain rituals can be beneficial–such as a tennis player maintaining a consistent set-up for a serve to stimulate behavioral chains of success (or “muscle memory”). However, the danger arises when we afford these rituals “magical” powers, losing sight of our own agency. Rather than trying to make it rain, Ted should have focused on what he actually had the power to change: expressing his feelings for Robin. Whether he succeeded or not, the result would not be the fault of some mystical “destiny,” but a reality he could eventually come to terms with and accept.

…. Or, if you’ve watched the show, he could just go on for another eight seasons only to end up right back where he started.


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